On an unrelated note, I am extremely upset that Google Reader is being retired.

I was bored yesterday and wrote a little summary of my thoughts for the future. This was partially inspired by the upcoming Singapore General Election taking place tomorrow and a certain online conservation I had with someone. After I finished writing it, I realized that it bears some similarities to the Dune timeline, so perhaps I was just agreeing with Frank Herbert.

In a future when all jobs of lower complexity than astrophysicists have been replaced by robots, conglomerates that own robots and their patents will reap the benefit of virtually all economic activities on the planet, while regular people can offer no value to the system. A tiny number of humans hold the few high-complexity jobs needed and are genetically superior in those roles due to generations of selection.

The masses soon realize that they have been made obsolete. A neo-Marxist revolution sweeps across the planet and great wars are fought, but the many cannot defeat the few. The corporations have centuries of technological advantage in their favour and their self-replicating machines swiftly put an end to the insurrections. The rebels are disarmed and ejected from the system.

With its obsolescence made official, most of humanity slowly regresses to pre-industrial subsistence-level economies. Civilization for most returns to small isolated communities. Even basic technology like fossil fuels and computers disappear with time because the exploitation of the planet’s natural resources is monopolized by the corporations whose robotic armies forcefully defend their subjectless fiefdoms.

The corporations wall themselves off in massive robotized vertical cities and mostly ignore the rest of humanity, occasionally sending expeditions into the wild to harvest feral human specimens for body parts and genetic material or clearing land to make room for industrial expansion.

Eventually, the corporate overlords evolve into a symbiotic relationship with machines and cease to be fully organic, gaining in the process physiological traits suitable for deep space voyages that cannot be duplicated organically. The evolved humanity leaves Earth after its crust has been almost completely emptied of useful compounds and before it is consumed by a dying sun. To the stars!

In the alternate timeline, Earth takes a hit from a giant meteor and humanity goes extinct in 2012.

I suppose the real alternative scenario is some kind of socialist paradise where the combined productivity of machines is more than sufficient to be distributed evenly across a humanity and free it from its eternal struggle to earn a living to either drown in hedonistic pleasures or pursue knowledge and science.

And I suppose this is more likely to happen if advancements and breakthroughs in technology are made accessible to everyone rapidly enough that no single sub-community has enough time to build a giant army of self-replicating killer robots before the rest have at least learnt how to build regular killer robots. Perhaps this is the real reason why patent terms should be as short as possible.

Just think about it. One day, a corporation similar to Isaac Asimov’s U.S. Robots and Mechanical Men, Inc. will be making tons of robots and conducting massive research into robotics and A.I. Everyone will think that robots are super awesome, so whenever Robotics Inc. sues some small-time robotics lab for infringing one of its ten trillion patents, people will just go “oh Sony Robots Inc., you so crazy” and return to enjoying their cup of coffee brewed by their robot butler while posting silly crap like this on Facetablet (because the concept of books no longer exist of course).

Eventually Robotics Inc. decides that it is no longer in its economic interest to have customers when they reach the tipping point where they can just make robots to create wealth passively. And before you know it, everyone else has been made obsolete.

Okay, so the real future will probably be somewhat different. But putting aside the details, let’s consider the big picture and the natural of power dynamics in human societies.

Kings and emperors derived their power from the people. People were stupider and more ignorant in the past, so this mandate was easy to get through coercion. Eventually, this transformed into a more democratic and equal relationship and we now have the idea of a “social contract” between the government and its people. But still, the point is that people living at the top of social hierarchies are rich and comfortable only because people below them are economically productive. Smart kings, presidents, CEOs and even dictators all recognize this fact and therefore seek to retain the loyalty and productivity of their subjects, citizens and workers through either incentives or threats.

But technology changes this relationship. Every worker replaced by a robot is one whose opinions and needs no longer matter to the person at the top. Today a person can operate a crane to do what once required dozens of people to perform. With an army of robots, it is not inconceivable for a single person or corporation to someday run an entire economy. Capitalism kind of breaks down in that system, because that corporation will no longer need consumers. Money and wealth are ultimately just means to secure an end in an economy of many productive parties, but this hypothetical corporation is basically omnipotent and needs nothing from others.

Sure, we are far from this scenario as long as artificial intelligence remains as crappy as it is today. But consider the effects of globalization: we have increasing rich-poor divides because people higher up in the economic hierarchy benefit greatly from moving low-skill jobs to the third world while people at the lower end are mostly screwed. Think third-world sweat shops are unfair competition? Just imagine what will happen when we have self-replicating, self-maintaining robot workers.

Everyone needs a college degree to get a job now. When the economy becomes fully automated, every remaining job will require at least a PhD. There certainly won’t be enough of such positions to go around for 10 billion people unless we expand massively into space.

Actually this is sounding more and more like the fundamental ideas behind Marxism, but with robots. Oh shit.

Sometimes I think crazy. I think I’m probably missing some key argument. The future can’t be that bleak.

Recently, renowned sci-fi writer William Gibson of Neuromancer fame annoyed a bunch of Miku fanboys when he tweeted, “Hatsune Miku doesn’t really rock me. I want higher rez, less anime.” This was immediately parsed by some to mean that he hates all things anime and wishes horrible things to happen to otakukind and hilarity ensued.

Coincidentally, I have been spending some time thinking about the concept of virtual idols recently and just picked up a copy of Gibson’s Idoru novel that touches on this exact issue. Incidentally, it has a pseudo anime-style cover.

While Gibson’s delivery of his message was highly ambiguous (we can all thank the ubiquity of Twitter in contemporary discourse for that), I think what he actually meant by his statement is that he believes a true virtual idol should emulate reality to a higher level of accuracy. This of course includes higher resolution graphics and the display technology to match it. I think there is some merit to that argument that goes beyond a matter of personal preference.

Idols throughout history have always been artificial constructs to varying degrees, but today idol-making has become a precise science. Outfits like Johnny’s and AKB48 assemble each idol from a list of proven ingredients and find a suitable host body to bring theory to life. They are basically idol factories, managing hundreds of manufactured personas and with hundreds more on a conveyor belt ready to replace them. These idols are actors whose talents are not singing or dancing but to give the fans exactly what they want to see. Auto-Tune fills in the rest.

The real game we are playing is the illusion of intimacy. The best idols are not the prettiest or the best singers, they are the ones who can convince the most number of people that a special connection exists between them and their fans.

This argument may sound overly cynical, but it’s only slightly. I’m not saying that all idols are being intentionally deceitful in order to be popular (only most of them), and indeed many of them probably truly believe in what they do and say in front of their fans. Some of them may even feel the special connection. But that all just means that even idols themselves are human beings who are susceptible to the alluring mirage of false intimacy.

I suppose the more astute reader would now argue, “But DM, by that line of reasoning is there really such a thing as real intimacy?” Let’s not open that can of worm, but I’ll just quickly add that at the very least, I think that real intimacy cannot possibly arise from a relationship in which communication is mostly unidirectional and systematically managed.

Now the problem I have with the idea of Hatsune Miku as an “idol” is not the art style or her glass-shattering voice, but the difficulty of maintaining this illusion with what is essentially an open-source meme. Her screen-projected concerts are not so much endearing as amusing; It’s something fresh and flashy, but after the first time it offers no obvious value over watching this YouTube video twenty times. That’s because seeing Hatsune Miku as an idol requires a suspension of disbelief far greater in magnitude than that required for a typical mass-produced humanoid idol. This is why virtual idols (and I suppose this does include anime characters in general) will remain a tiny niche for as long as display and rendering technology fail to convincingly fool our brains into giving willing fans an easier time to live in our selfish fantasies.

Of course, my obsession with the idea of emotional intimacy as part of the definition of an idol is subjective and probably too stringent for some. However, I find the distinction significant because a line, hard to define as it may be, must exist somewhere between regular fame and idolatry, or the concept of idol ceases to have relevance.

This reminds me of my current addiction: Valkyria Chronicles 2

In addition, the crowd-sourced nature of Hatsune Miku further complicates the situation. Everyone can participate in the creative process and all works produced can potentially be incorporated into the collective idea of what exactly constitutes Miku. The trademark leek she holds for example originated from a Bleach parody video. Given that idols, according to my cynical worldview, consciously calibrate their self image in a way that panders to fan expectations, letting fans have direct creative control over the entire process should arguably represent the ultimate form of idol creation, at least in theory.

I am undecided on this one, but I lean towards scepticism. If fans get exactly what we want because we helped to create it, doesn’t that just makes it more difficult for us to maintain the illusion that the virtual idol is an existence worthy of our worship? After all, how can the creator idolize his creation when he can see all through all the magic taking place behind the scene?

Personally, I see Hatsune Miku as a meme. The sense of joy we derive from watching her comes from shared experiences between fans more than it comes from her. It’s more like an open-source software community where everyone contributes something and we all feel happy with the result and less like Steve Jobs coming up with an awesome iThing and we all grovel at his feet. There are tons of shaky bits in that analogy, but I think it conveys my general feeling.

So that’s why they named her Apple…

So all in all, I do not see Hatsune Miku as a virtual idol. She’s more like the Laughing Man except less anarchistic and more merchandising. But in all likelihood, the idea of idol itself may be the one that is changed in this great social experiment. We’ll see.

Actually, I wonder why no one has yet to make a serious attempt at manufacturing a classic virtual idol. We already have the technology to render photorealistic people (at least for the purpose of making music videos or advertisements). Throw in some anonymous voice samples with Auto-Tune and some masked body doubles for concerts (perhaps even special effects make-up or plastic surgery) and you have an everlasting star who will work for as long as you need and who will never betray your corporate interests… Hmmm.

As for William Gibson, he eventually tweeted a follow-up message and said, “Hatsune Miku is clearly a more complex phenomenon than I initially assumed. Requires further study.” I wonder if he truly believes that or if he’s just saying that to get the fanboys to get off his back.

P.S. It’s interesting to note that a lot of Miku fan art is basically recoloured/traced illustrations of other anime characters. Perhaps Miku is more like the Borg: she absorbs and assimilates all our individual fantasies…

I’ve made it no secret that I think distributing media through physical means is an archaic and rapidly shrinking trade. I sincerely believe that everything that can be digitalized will eventually be digitalized, whether you want it or not. It is a destiny that all media companies have to face and it can be an enormous opportunity for those who adapt fast.

And of course, it’s no different for anime. That’s right, it’s rant time.

Evolution

The theory of evolution has frequently been summed up by the phrase “survival of the fittest”, and indeed it is the perfect phrase to describe business models in our era of rapid technological growth. The “fittest” refers not to the strongest or the best, but the ones who can adapt and evolve to survive the next big change. Many mighty creatures had, over the millennia, fallen victim to the waves of biological revolutions in our planet’s short history, and yet the small and insignificant cockroach, whose ancestors once crawled in the shadows of dinosaurs, survives to this very day.

Today, technology has brought about such sudden but wonderful changes to our world that some of our existing frameworks which have existed for hundreds of years are starting to fail us. There will always be those who do not believe that everything they have held to be sacred truths for their lives is now change, evolving and improving for the better. Every effort will be made to build a dam around this torrent of change. At first they will succeed, but no dam can hold off the force of nature that is the power of technology. Pandora’s Box cannot be closed once it has been opened.

Okay, maybe I am getting a little too abstract here. Let us move back to anime.

Declining DVD sales in Japan

According to this ITmedia article forwarded to me by Soulshift, Japan’s DVD sales are dropping. Heck, I will agree with those people who claim that DVD sales everywhere are on the decline, even if I have yet to see conclusive evidence of it. Because it just makes sense. I for one certainly do not think that DVDs are worth their price tags, even if I do buy them for collecting purposes. I think a lot of people in the younger generations agree with me.

This is not to say that I think all media content should be free and no one should get paid for his/her works. I don’t. But I do think that the old way of doing things will not last for much longer. It has nothing to do with wanting to get things for free. I will pay for it if I have to, but the more important point is that I want it in my way, my format and at my convenience. You can air free anime on TV 24-hours a day and I won’t give a damn because I rather watch the shows I want to watch whenever I feel like watching them. Call it unreasonable if you want, but that is the kind of mindset that young people growing up with the Internet as their main source of entertainment will have. And those are the potential customers in this business.

当社のDVDが売れない最大の理由は作品の力不足だが、業界全体でもアニメDVD販売が不振だ。その原因は1つではないだろう」とGDHの内田康史副社長は言う。HDD＆DVDレコーダーのæ®åŠã‚„、YouTubeのような動画共有サイトへの違法アップロードの影響などが、DVD不振の原因として考えられるという。

The ITmedia article interviewed GDH, the parent company of GONZO, and according to them, the main reasons why DVD sales are dropping in Japan are because of the spread of HDD and DVD recorders and the popularity of video streaming sites such as YouTube. You can whine and cry all you want, but that is not going to make technology reverse itself and uninvent things that are inconvenient for your business.

And not everything can be solved through legislation either. Sure, you can waste spend money to hire a bunch of people who sit around and do nothing but send out takedown letters to YouTube, but are you then going to lobby for a law that bans people from recording TV shows with DVD recorders too? It is just not possible. And it should be noted that P2P filesharing is not even a blip on Japan’s radar. I know very few Japanese fans who have heard of, much less utilize, BitTorrent.

Old distribution model, new market paradigm

「当社がアニメDVDを海外展開ãã‚‹å ´åˆã€å­—幕や音声、パッケージなどを海外仕様に作り変えるæ‚間が必要で、どうしても日本よりも後のçºå£²ã«ãªã£ã¦ã—まう。このタイムラグのせいでビジネスチャンスを逃している面はある」

The same GDH representative goes on to say, “When we release our products overseas, it takes time to translate, dub and repackage, so the releases always end up being slower than in Japan. This time lag often results in many business opportunities being lost.”

I think this is a clear indication that they are slowly realizing the fact that the old system is showing its age. Foreign audiences are no longer contented to get slow and outdated releases. If they cannot get the series they want legally and fast, they will turn to the Internet. Illegal or not, the Internet is there and will always be there. Deal with it. The best way to go about solving this problem is obviously to cater to the global audience right from the start, instead of trying to pretend that regional markets are still clearly defined and segregated like they were twenty years ago.

The blame game

　ただ“犯人探し”に躍起になるだけでは、次のビジネスは生まれない。「æ‚代とともにメディアは移り変わるもの。最も多くの人に視聴してもらえ、お金を払ってもらえる可能性が高いメディアを試し、ビジネスを切り開く必要がある」

The best quote: “Just searching for the ‘criminals’ is not going to do any good. It will not create any new business opportunities. Media has to change with time. There is a need for us to try out formats that bring us the greatest viewership and increase our opportunities to make money. We need to open up our business.” Exactly what I want to say. GDH has created a YouTube channel called “GONZO DOOGA” and is asking YouTube not to remove content that infringes on GONZO’s copyrights as long as they can serve as promotional material.

The same article goes on to say that illegal downloading has, ironically, proven a global demand for anime. What needs to be done is not to destroy this demand by isolating potential customers and calling them pirates. The content owners need to re-examine their business strategies and find out ways to tap into that newly-generated demand using the technology that enabled it all to happen: the Internet. Indeed, the GDH representative acknowledges the fact that illegal sites that charge users monthly fees to download anime are very popular overseas and that GDH sees it as a huge business opportunity waiting to be tapped in its quest to expand globally.

Online distribution

That brings me back to Odex. Some people think that I am against Video-On-Demand. That is not true. I am an fervent supporter of digital media distribution that actually achieves its true intention—being convenient. In fact, when I first suggested VOD to Mr. Peter Go many months ago, he was unreceptive to the idea. I am happy that a small step has now been taken in that direction, but it is really small indeed. And the way Odex has sequenced its actions certainly has not helped to bring about much enthusiasm for the minute change.

I mean, it simply makes no business sense to assume that the tech-savvy downloaders are an insignificant minority, provoke them into a frenzy, and then roll out a service that is targeted right at the very same group of people while pretending nothing happened. But of course the people at Odex know what they are doing because they did their market research, right? I sure hope they do.

Conclusions

It doesn’t matter how good DVD sales were in the past. It doesn’t matter how well the system used to work. I see only the future and I think the future will only get brighter for anime. But not for DVDs. Filesharing will not kill anything that is really important and has real purposes, it is simply a new paradigm that will serve to weed out the unevolved dinosaurs that fed on past inefficiencies in the system and profited disproportionately off the physical bottlenecks of old technology that no longer exist. It may make sense for most people to pay for movies on DVDs today, but a new system replacing it will soon emerge to reward creativity in a new and better way, just as a different incentive system used to exist before the invention of the video cassette.

The ones who get to the new winning formula first will reap the most benefits. And I’m glad to learn that the Japanese studios are at least putting some thought into this. Perhaps one day we will pay $30 a month to download and watch all the anime series we want. A guy can dream…